Storm risk, housing age, and who actually pays.
Original analysis built on FEMA's National Risk Index, Census American Community Survey housing data, and the NOAA Storm Events database. Every study publishes its method and its limitations. Journalists and researchers are welcome to cite or reproduce any of it.
Three questions about storm risk, answered with public data.
Where America's oldest housing meets the worst hail
28.8 million Americans live in high-hail neighbourhoods where the typical home was built before 1980. The overlap is concentrated in a belt running from Iowa through Ohio.
READ THE STUDY →STUDY 02The households most exposed to hail are the least able to pay the deductible
Americans in the lowest hail-risk neighbourhoods have a median household income roughly $14,000 higher than those in the highest-risk ones. Storm exposure and financial cushion run in opposite directions.
READ THE STUDY →STUDY 03FEMA's hail risk score and actual hail events agree less than you would expect
Across 1,354 counties, the correlation between FEMA's modelled hail risk and observed NOAA hail events over five and a half years is 0.24. The two measure different things — and a homeowner reading 'low risk' may not realise it.
READ THE STUDY →What these are built on.
census tracts with both a FEMA risk score and ACS housing data
NOAA storm events, 2021-01-01 to 2026-08-01
US building footprints held for roof-area work
Sources are FEMA's National Risk Index, the US Census Bureau American Community Survey, and NOAA's Storm Events Database — all public. Our own roof measurements are deliberately not used in these studies: the sample is far too small and too self-selected to support national claims. Underlying aggregate data is published at /datasets.
Using this work.
All of it is free to cite with attribution to RoofTap. County-level and tract-level breakdowns beyond what is published here are available on request, including custom cuts for a specific market.
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